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CV Clips – SCV Overview Nov ’20. A brief overview of the performance of the SCV segment in the month of November 2020. We review some key trends, market sectors performing well and our outlook for Q4 ’20-’21.
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#SCV, #Leaptrucks, #Mahindra, #TataMotors, #AshokLeyland, #Maruti
In this new segment, we bring you 3 minute overviews in the form of Commercial Vehicle (CV) Clips. We dive deep into the performance of the M&HCV Segment in November 2020.
#Leaptrucks, #CommercialVehicles, #TataMotors, #VECV, #AshokLeyland, #BharatBenz, #Mahindra, #M&HCV
Summary: In this article, Leaptrucks looks at five factors that will impact November 2020 CV sales. We also look at the performance of the industry in October 2020 by manufacturer and by segment for a deeper understanding.
October was a strong month for all major manufacturers. The industry de-grew slightly by (3%) in October 2020 in comparison to October 2019. On the bright side, the industry grew by almost 15% in comparison with the previous month. Maruti maintained its momentum for 2020 and grew by an impressive 30%. They were followed by Eicher Trucks and Buses with a strong 15% growth. Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland both ended the month almost flat in comparison to last year. Mahindra had a drop of (13%) in comparison to last year (more details on this in the SCV section below). However, the pandemic has had a significant negative impact of (48%) on year to date CV industry volumes against the same period last year.
The SCV segment de-grew slightly by (2%) in October 2020 over the same month last year. This follows 2 consecutive months of growth against last year. All manufacturers performed well in the segment with the exception of the market leader Mahindra. As indicated earlier, Maruti grew strongly by 30% followed by Ashok Leyland with a growth of 11%. Tata Motors also had an impressive growth of 3%. Mahindra had a drop of (-12%) in comparison to the same month last year. We also observed that Mahindra grew by almost 8% from a strong performance in September 2020.
The L&ICV segment grew by over 8% in October 2020 over October 2019. Both Tata Motors and Eicher Trucks and Buses performed strongly with double digit growth in this segment. Mahindra reports L&ICV and M&HCV numbers together and showed a drop of 37%. This sets the stage for a strong finish to the year for the L&ICV segment.
October 2020 was a crucial month for the M&HCV segment. A strong performance by all major players was not expected to happen as early as October 2020 with a growth of 10% over October 2019. Eicher grew by an impressive 68% followed by Ashok Leyland at 13% and Tata Motors at 3%. This bodes well for a faster turnaround in this segment. However, the industry is down by (66%) in comparison to the same time last year.
Passenger transportation continues to struggle in the midst of the pandemic. Sales in October 2020 were flat month on month with September 2020. However, the industry was down by (-68%) against the same month last year. All major players a significant drop in volumes in October 2020.
We have summarised five major factors that will impact sales in November 2020:
In summary, we continue to be bullish about the CV industry performance in H2 2020. October 2020 provides a good springboard to the industry to finish the year well after a very disappointing start.
PS: We have received many questions on why we do not include sales number for other CV manufacturers. This is either due to the fact that their numbers are not available in the public domain or due to the fact that we are unable to get segment level information from them. If you have any contacts at these manufacturers who can help us access this data, please contact us at hello@leaptrucks.in and we would appreciate your support. We also hope that you enjoyed our article on the five factors that will impact November 2020 CV sales.
About Leaptrucks: Leaptrucks is a marketplace for buying and selling used trucks, buses and construction machinery. You can see all our listings at www.leaptrucks.in/listings/. If you are from the CV industry and would like to contribute to our blog, please contact us at hello@leaptrucks.in . If you like our articles, please subscribe to our blog at the top of this screen.
For some additional reading on ICRA outlook for the CV industry, review this article: shorturl.at/cyIKV.
This article was also published on Motorindia Magazine at https://www.motorindiaonline.in/trucks/five-factors-that-will-impact-november-cv-sales/.
#Leaptrucks, #TataMotors, #Mahindra, #AshokLeyland, #Eicher, #Maruti
Leaptrucks brings you a detailed analysis of the segmental performance of the Commercial Vehicle (CV) industry and highlights the hidden trends in Commercial Vehicle sales in H1 2020-21. The Automotive industry has largely recovered from the lows of the Covid pandemic. However, CVs have unfortunately lagged behind other segments.
September has been a bright spot in the CV industry. For the first time in 2020-21, the industry performance was almost at par with last year. All major manufacturers performed well in September. However, the industry ended H1 55% lower than the same period last year.
SCVs made up 57% of the CV industry volume YTD in 2019-20. However, in 2020-21, they make up a whopping 76% of the total volume. This is partly due to the fact that the SCV segment has seen a much faster recovery in comparison to other segments.
On the flip side, M&HCV and Bus segment had the largest degrowth from 22% to 13% and 10% to 2% respectively. The L&ICV segment only de-grew slightly from 11% to 9%. The contributions from each segment remain largely similar for the month of September 2020.
Commercial Vehicle performance and NBFC performance focused primarily on customer profile. Customers were profiled based on First time users or buyers, Lower retail customers, Upper retail customers and Strategic customers. We believe that while this factor continues to be important, it is now critical to layer in the industry segment.
A handful of industry segments continue to drive volumes. Agriculture, rural demand and related transportation are driving SCV demand. Essential goods and FMCG products are driving demand of L&ICVs. Ecommerce is driving demand for SCVs, ICVs and the 19-ton M&HCV trucks. Road contracts are driving demand for 10-wheel tippers. Industry sub segments will continue to skew demand in H2 2020.
While there is significant excess capacity available in the market, not all capacity is easily transferable. For example, there is significant excess capacity in multi axle HCVs. However, most of the industry sub segment requirements are currently driven by SCVs, Single axle trucks and Tippers.
Similarly, there is significant over capacity in Tippers carrying construction material and RMC vehicles. However, contractors who are completing road contracts are picking up new tippers. This is because these tippers are operated for 18 to 20 hours and need to be in excellent condition.
Most importantly, the demands of customers in each sub segment are vastly different. We are seeing more specialization of operators in the Indian market for providing logistics similar to developed economies. This will also lead to the lower number of generalist operators that fall into the Market Load Operator (MLO) category. All these factors point to growth in sales of CVs in specific sub segments despite overcapacity being available across the industry. There remains an arbitrage opportunity for some strong fleet operators who can leverage this excess capacity in alternate segments.
Freight rates have largely remained unchanged. Rates today are largely the same as rates from Jan / Feb 2020. Since then, diesel prices have risen 15 – 20%. BS6 trucks cost over 20 – 25% more than similar BS4 trucks (for the equipment needed to meet stringent emission norms). Despite these challenges, rates for existing trucks and new trucks largely remain unchanged or have risen by less than 5%.
Customers picking up new trucks are anticipating running vehicles for up to 10% to 20% more kilometres per month in comparison to pre-covid levels to offset the price increases. Hirers are also offering bonuses for limited periods of time like festival season running to keep operators engaged.
In the section below, we briefly highlight the performance of the SCV, L&ICV, M&HCV and Passenger sub segments of Commercial Vehicles for September and H1 2020.
Small Commercial Vehicle segment has performed well for the past 3 months. We anticipate that this trend will continue in H2 with a slew of new products being available. All major OEMs will continue to perform well in this segment. The YTD sales also ended with a drop of only 40%, the lowest among all CV sub segments.
The L&ICV segment should have a strong showing in H2 2020-21 making up for some of the lost volume from H1. All major OEMs have performed well in this segment in September. Mahindra volumes are down only due to the non-availability of the Load king / Optimo tipper in BS6 for which trials are currently under way. The YTD drop was 64%, since the volumes were depressed until September 2020.
M&HCV segment had a strong showing in September after a very challenging H1 2020-21. This segment has been driven by improved volumes in 10 wheel tippers and 19 ton trucks which we anticipate will continue in H2. The year to date drop was 75%, driven by significantly low sales until August 2020.
Passenger transportation has been devastated by Covid 19. However, September offers us some hope of revival. While manufacturing firms have been driving demand for the limited number of buses being sold. The prospects for this segment will hinge largely on the actions taken by state governments to open up schools and inter-city travel. The YTD sales was down a whopping 90%.
You can contact us at hello@leaptrucks.in. Leaptrucks is a marketplace for buying and selling used trucks, buses and construction machinery. You can see all our listings at www.leaptrucks.in/listings. Please subscribe to our blog at the top of your screen if you like our articles. You can see our other articles at www.leaptrucks.in/blog.
Hope you enjoyed our article on the hidden trends in commercial vehicle sales in H1 2020-21. Do share other trends that we may have missed? Please share your personal observations in the comments below.
This article was also published in the Indian Transportation & Logistics News at https://www.itln.in/blog/hidden-trends-in-indian-commercial-vehicle-sales-of-h1-202021-none-selected.
#CommercialVehiclesales, #VECV, #TataMotors, #Mahindra, #AshokLeyland, #BharatBenz, #NBFCs, #Leaptrucks
We highlight 6 observations from Commercial Vehicles sales in September 2020. The CV segment showed remarkable improvement to finish September with a nominal drop of (3%).
This week we highlight the remarkable turnaround in CV sales in the month of September 2020. This give us optimism that a turnaround for CVs will happen earlier than we had previously estimated.
The year 2020 has been an extremely tough year for CVs. In March 2020, OEMs and Dealers were battling to register BS4 trucks amidst the lockdown to beat a Supreme court directive. Unlock 1.0 and 2.0 did not provide much hope and the industry ended Q1 with a drop of almost (85%) in comparison to the same period last year.
However, things have gotten progressively better for the industry in general over the last 3 months. July 2020 ended with a drop of around (33%). August 2020 was even better with a drop of (15%). And September 2020 ended with a nominal drop of only (3%) vs. September 2019.
6 observations from Commercial Vehicles sales in 2020 include:
However, the CV segment has to make up for a drop of almost (55%) in comparison to the first 6 months of last year. The positive trends in the market point to a strong recovery in the last 2 quarters of the year.
Which of our observations do you feel contributed most to the stronger performance in September? Please comment in the section below.
We will also be releasing segment specific summaries over the next week. Do subscribe to our newsletter at the top of this page so that you do not miss our market outlook and in-depth stories.
You can contact us at hello@leaptrucks.in. Leaptrucks is a marketplace for buying and selling used trucks, buses and construction machinery. You can see all our listings at www.leaptrucks.in/listings.
This article was also published on MotorIndia Magazine at https://www.motorindiaonline.in/trucks/september-cv-sales-point-to-strong-recovery-ahead/.
Schools are facing a very challenging time post Covid which is in turn affecting the future of school transportation. Private schools and International schools have adopted online distance learning successfully. Government and aided schools have had significant challenges engaging children. As on today, most schools remain closed even today. You can see our detailed overview on school education in our previous article here at https://tinyurl.com/leaptrucks-education.
Schools have had to manage their expenses in these challenging times. Most of them have had to retain all teachers and most support staff while also strengthening their IT teams. While operating costs have only reduced slightly, fee collection or income has fallen significantly short of expectations. All school buses remain idle and as expected, schools are unable to collect transportation fees.
However, Unlock 4.0 came with a glimmer of hope. Most establishments including restaurants, pubs and bars were allowed to open doors. They had to follow strict social distancing norms ensuring the safety of their patrons.
Schools were also looking forward to relaxation in a phased manner. As per MHA guidelines, classes 9 to 12 were allowed to come to school with explicit permission from parents. Schools were making preparations for re-opening, especially for classes 10 and 12 starting Sep 21.
Most states have not allowed schools to re-open despite the MHA guidelines. As per news reports, only 7 states have allowed schools to open, with very low attendance. We anticipate further delays in re-opening of schools as Covid numbers continue to grow across the country.
We anticipate two possible scenarios for school re-opening. In the optimistic scenario, schools will be allowed to resume starting mid October. In this scenario, we anticipate school transportation to resume in a phased manner under Unlock 5.0 starting January 2021. This is also contingent on the number of Corona cases dropping off steeply in the coming months.
In the pessimistic scenario, school re-opening may be delayed to January 2021 or beyond. School transportation may not get to normalcy until the next academic year. Here we conservatively assume that a vaccine will be available for widespread use by March 2021.
While challenges exist, we anticipate that organised school transportation as a segment will continue to grown and outperform for the following reasons:
While long term growth appears positive, this segment is under significant short-term pressure. Collecting fees for school transportation can resume only after schools are allowed to re-open. As the EMI moratorium ends, schools, operators and financiers are grappling with figuring out next steps.
It will be critical to evaluate the future keeping the various scenarios for resumption of school transportation in mind. The decision makers include the MHA, central and state governments. Hence it will also be prudent to involve the RBI and the Finance Ministry to look upon this segment favourably. This segment is facing a watershed moment necessitated by Safety and Governmental policy. In our opinion, Banks and NBFCs will need to take a long-term outlook while keeping short term challenges in mind while working out re-structuring plans for these assets.
What is your outlook for re-opening of schools? Do you anticipate schools resuming by Dec 2020, Mar 2021 or June 2021? Share your comments and feedback below. If you like our article, please subscribe from the red Leaptrucks bar above.
#Schooltransportation, #NBFCs, #Schooloperators, #EMIMoratorium, #RBI
The Covid 19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the Commercial Vehicle (CV) industry. To understand this impact up close, we conducted a detailed survey of Truck Owners. This article summarises the 6 key takeaways from the Leaptrucks Truck Owners Sentiment Survey.
The Commercial Vehicle industry has been one of the worst hit in the Covid pandemic. Only essential goods were allowed to be transported until early May. Subsequent lockdowns provided allowances to transportation. However, state level restrictions continued to hamper free movement of goods and further extended the misery.
Leaptrucks recently conducted a regional survey to understand the customer sentiment among Truck Owners. The survey captures the major roadblocks they have faced since the beginning of the pandemic. It also analyses the impact of demand and freight rates on the industry. It also captures their expectation of market recovery. While the survey was limited to 3 states in South India, many of the learnings are applicable across the country. Most importantly, we have summarised our learnings in the form of 6 Key takeaways from the Leaptrucks Truck Owners Sentiment Survey.
Over 450 Goods Transporters across Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu were interviewed for this survey. Single truck operators, Lower & Upper Retail and Large fleet operators were represented among the respondents. They owned Small, Medium and / or Heavy Commercial Vehicles. Owners hailed from both urban and rural locations. This effort is one of the largest efforts undertaken in the Commercial Vehicle segment.
Major segments surveyed in this survey included:
Over 26% of respondents belonged to the Construction material segment and 24% from the Fruits and Vegetables segment. Automobile carriers and E-Commerce segments had relatively lower representation of 1% of respondents. The segmental selection also varied across states. This survey excluded passenger transportation.
Covid has crippled Market demand for commercial vehicles. At the time of the survey, only 12% of respondents were witnessing demand of even 50% or more in comparison with Pre-Covid levels. On the other hand, 25% were witnessing a drastic demand drop of over 75%.
Most segments surveyed have been impacted negatively by Market demand. Outliers include the Essential Goods, E-commerce, Agriculture and Fruits & Vegetables segments.
Over 57% respondents pointed to an overall drop in consumer demand due to Covid. The challenges faced due to Interstate transport restrictions prior to Unlock 4.0 came a close second. Respondents also pointed to large outstanding payments from the market which was negatively impacting their cash flows. Fear of contracting Covid had also reduced Driver availability for owners. Transporters operating in the infrastructure segment pointed to Government projects being put on hold reducing their fleet utilization.
The implementation of lockdown coincided with an increase in diesel prices which make up the largest component of transportation costs. Diesel prices increased by over 21% since the end of March.
Only 14% of respondents are operating at rates higher than pre-covid levels to offset diesel price increases. On average, their rates have grown by a meagre 3 to 5%. However, over 58% of them were operating at rates similar to those of Pre-Covid levels. Over 28% were operating at rates that lower than pre-Covid levels. These rates range between 5% to 15% below pre-Covid levels. This is primarily due to the drop in demand in the market.
Respondents have largely not been able to pass on diesel price increases to end users. Freight rates continue to be under pressure.
We found that our respondents were largely optimistic despite the challenges thrown at them by Covid. Over 66% of our respondents anticipated a recovery by January 2021. Only 14% anticipated a long drawn out recovery going well into August 2021.
Respondents operating in Rural locations were more optimistic about a quicker recovery. Steady demand for agricultural products has helped stabilise the rural economy in the face of Covid. The impact of lockdowns has been paralysing in urban locations. This has in turn impacted the confidence level of urban goods transporters.
A few segments were already showing early signs of recovery. Respondents in these segments were actively looking to add to their fleet to meet growing market demand.
Goods transporters have had to deal with a significant drop in market demand amid the Covid pandemic. This in conjunction with an increase in diesel prices have put freight rates under tremendous pressure. Only a few segments like Agriculture, Fruits and Vegetables, E-Commerce and Essential Goods have bucked this trend.
Our detailed interviews uncovered the following 6 key takeaways for optimism among Goods transporters.
At the time of the survey, respondents were already beginning to see green shoots of recovery. Increasing market demand, easing up of interstate movement restrictions and an improvement in flow of cash to lower outstanding payments were slowly providing them much needed confidence. This also set the stage for a faster turnaround in the CV segments as the economy gets back to normalcy post Unlock 4.0. This also bodes well for the industry and the financiers who have been worried about the prospects of higher repossessions from lenders in the CV industry.
We would like to take this opportunity to thank our partners without whom this would not have been possible. PSN Group and Anaamalais Group provided us the support and resources needed to collaborate on this survey.
To conclude, when do you anticipate a modest post Covid recovery? In Oct 2020, Jan 2021, April 2021 or August 2021? Do share your point of view and your reasons in the comments section below!
For more articles from the CV and CE industry, please check or subscribe to our blog at www.leaptrucks.in/blog.
This article was also published in MotorIndia magazine https://www.motorindiaonline.in/logistics/6-key-takeaways-from-leaptrucks-goods-transporters-sentiment-survey/.
Tags: #Logisticsurvey, #Customersentimentsurvey. #CommercialVehicles, # TataMotors, #VECV, #AshokLeyland, #Mahindra, #MarutiCarry, #ForceMotors, #BharatBenz, #SMLIsuzu
This was not a story that we had planned to tell! We were talking to over 20 Principals and Administrators across Kerala and Karnataka to understand the future of school transportation. As we listened to them, we were able to grasp how school education had faced an existential crisis as the lockdown came to an end in early May.
Principals, Administrators and most importantly teachers became heroes and students and parents became critical character actors in this story. Tech companies played the role of supporting actors – very well this time around! However, no story is complete without a villain and Infrastructure or more precisely the lack of it played that role to perfection.
The previous academic year ended with a whimper. The start of the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent nationwide lockdown announced starting March 25th were both sudden and urgent. Many schools could not finish the annual exams which were an integral part of the student evaluation process every year. Teachers, administrators, parents and students were left feeling that the year had to be closed out with a job half finished.
While the lockdown came to an end in early May, the pandemic did not. As the number of Coronavirus cases surged across the country, the Ministry of Health decided to keep school campuses closed. To understand how schools reacted to the challenges posed by the pandemic, we talked to the Principals and Administrators over 20 schools across South India. The cross section of schools included international schools, private schools from urban and rural locations and schools receiving government aid.
The Ministry of Health deciding to take a cautious approach, it became clear to schools that re-opening may be further delayed. Teachers and administrators were left scrambling to identify alternate ways of teaching. It became clear that most children would not be allowed to leave their homes for the academic year. Distance education seemed to be the only option out and online learning seemed to offer one of the few plausible solutions. However, schools had to surmount significant challenges to make this transition from in school learning to distance learning.
Very few schools had strong IT departments with prior experience handling online learning. Many of them lacked the basic infrastructure which was a pre-requisite for distance learning – including high speed wireless connectivity across both their campuses and the homes of their teachers, laptops for their teaching staff, Learning Management software to manage coursework and additional software to get student feedback and homework. Administrators and Principals were also left with a limited amount of time to train their teachers on executing distance learning effectively. This was further complicated by teachers having to work from home during this period.
Around 30% of our respondents, primarily international schools and private schools were slightly ahead of the curve. They had implemented a robust framework for digital learning from their campuses over the previous few years. This included ensuring broadband connectivity on campuses, enabling teachers and students with laptops or tablets, implementing a Learning management software and enabling students with school email. These schools clearly had a head start in the race to transition to distance learning.
Despite the challenges detailed above, all private and international schools in urban areas which were behind also caught up to their counterparts quickly. The IT teams worked overtime to bridge this gap. Administrators and Principals led the drive for an eco-system for a smooth transition to distance learning. However, they needed to ensure that both teachers and students were able to make this journey.
While many teachers were digitally savvy, others were not. However, they went about the transition from a physical environment to a virtual environment with gusto. Gone were the black and white boards which were replaced by online presentations or Learning Management Software. Classrooms were replaced by Zoom or Teams screens. Assignments were delivered online and graded virtually.
It was an easier for the children to become digitally savvy to make the transition to a distance learning model. They were required to have dedicated laptops or tablets with high speed broadband connectivity. Parents were also expected to be available to support students in this transition. This was critical to the success of this transition as children migrated from physical campuses with friends, physical interaction and blackboards to 14” screens which contained their entire schooling experience.
They journey to distance learning was also supported by the tools that were needed to make it successful. Software being widely available on the cloud on a subscription model made the transition easy and effective. Schools did not have to invest huge amounts of money of developing software for this transition. They effectively leveraged online Learning Management Systems like Google classrooms to develop and share the day’s lectures with students. They conducted classes on conferencing platforms like Zoom, Teams and Hangouts. They leveraged apps like See-Saw, Flipgrid and Padlet to for assignment submissions.
It is also important to note that the wide availability of broadband connections across urban locations made the transition easier. Effective 4G connections have also been leveraged to make distance learning a success.
International schools and Private schools in urban areas successfully made a transition to a distance learning model. However, schools in rural locations had a tougher time. They were unable to surmount infrastructural challenges which included availability of dedicated devices and high-speed broadband access on campus, at teachers’ and students’ homes. This was further complicated by multiple power outages every day. Rural parents also preferred waiting for campuses to re-open in place of a watered-down distance learning model. In our interviews, very few schools have been able to surmount this challenge.
Schools receiving government aid have also not had an easy transition. Governments like those in Kerala have asked these schools to avoid online learning. Instead, the Kerala government is offering classes for free via Television channels dedicated to education. Both students and teachers sit through the same classes on television. Teachers communicate to students via their parents’ whatssap accounts summarising the day’s classes and sending them homework. Students are required to respond via whatssap to their teachers. This approach is also seeing limited success since it is challenging for teachers to even monitor if students attend classes via television.
Distance learning does not come without challenges. Teachers are facing a stressful time handling teaching online, preparing for the next day’s classes and grading assignments all the while managing their own households and families as they work from home. One school indicated that 2% of their teachers had opted out for the school year due to this added stress and were open to re-joining when school re-opens. Students are complaining of headaches due to increased screen time and having a difficult time reconciling to 14” screens as a very poor substitute to their schooling experience.
The relatively successful transition of International Schools and Private schools to distance learning has put them in a relatively better position. The continuity in offering distance education has enabled them to collect between 40% and 90% in term 1. All the schools we talked to have managed to retain their entire teaching staff and support staff (some at lower salaries). They have also had to strengthen their IT teams to deal with distance education. This transition is also not without challenges. Urban and International schools have significantly higher operating costs in comparison to Rural schools and even minor shortfalls in school fees may have a significant impact on their operations. Schools have also been taking an empathetic view and offering support where needed to parents who have lost jobs or have financial difficulties on a case by case basis.
In contrast, Rural Schools and Government aided schools are in a much weaker position. The challenges in providing effective distance education has translated into significant challenges in collecting fees. The Rural schools we talked to were only able to collect between 1% and 20% of the term fees. To make matters worse, they are also facing challenges in students dropping out. Parents of students who were working in the middle east or metro cities have lost their jobs are preferring to move their children to Government schools. These schools are facing significant challenges in sustaining operations.
Only 10% of schools we talked to were anticipating a staggered re-opening starting October, 2020. Unlock 4.0 has been a pleasant surprise to most. It allows schools to bring back students from classes 9th to 12th with explicit permission from their parents. This will only be half the battle as schools learn to put in place stringent safety norms to ensure the safety of their students, teachers and staff as Covid 19 rages around the country.
Over 80% of our respondents did not anticipate re-opening of primary schools and kindergartens this year. Challenges in young children wearing masks for extended period of time, difficulty in ensuring that all physical interaction among kids in school and most importantly convincing parents to send these young children to school contributed to their outlook.
Rural schools anticipate a quicker transition to successful school re-openings. Parents in rural areas have been requesting schools to re-open and appear more willing to send children to school in comparison to their counterparts in cities. The lack of infrastructure for distance learning will also fuel a quicker transition back to schools re-opening in rural areas. However, they will also have to deal with the strict norms that will be detailed by the Ministry of Health. This may necessitate many of the measures we detailed above for urban schools to make school re-opening a reality.
This pandemic has brought out the best in our private schooling system. All schools agree that distance learning far from an optimal solution. However, they are trying to make the best out of current challenging situation. Most of them have worked very hard to ensure continuity of education despite the circumstances. On the one side, Principals, Administrators, Teachers, IT and Support staff have all stepped up to make this happen. On the other, students and parents have also adapted to distance learning. This bodes well for learning to become more immersive with a combination of physical and digital tools once schools go back to operating normally.
We acknowledge that this article primarily addresses the excellent response to the pandemic by private and international schools. However, we also recognise that Rural schools, Government schools and Government aided schools have been left behind in the movement towards distance learning. As the economy recovers from the pandemic, it is time for the Government to give serious thought into ensuring continuity of education for all children. The National Education Policy (NEP) should not just address the right to education but also the continuity of education to all children across India.
What has been your experience as a parent in distance learning? We would love to hear your thoughts in the comments below!!!
Tags: #Onlinelearning, #Distanceeducation, #Education
In this article, we take a look at the Small Commercial Vehicles (SCVs) sales recovery. We analyse the segment performance over the first 5 months of a very difficult year. This is Part 1 of a 4 part series from Leaptrucks that dives deep into the Commercial Vehicle (CV) industry performance. The chart below details the performance of the major players in the SCV segment namely Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Maruti and Mahindra. We review the journey from Q1 2020 to August 2020.
The pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on the CV industry. However, as we had mentioned in our article last month, we had predicted that the SCV segment will lead the industry to recovery. Q1 2020 was a challenging quarter for the segment. However, in July, we saw a huge improvement over Q1. August has proved to be a turning point for the segment to move from monthly declines to growth. Demand has recovered and supply constraints are easing . The recovery in this segment is quicker than anticipated.
It is clear from the chart below that the SCV segment is leading the Commercial Vehicle industry out of the pandemic. While sales dropped by over 77% in Q1 2020, the drop in July 2020 was only 13%. This has turned into a growth of 7% in the month of August 2020. On the supply side, plant shutdowns due to Covid and component supply issues are both under control. On the demand side, strong rural demand and last mile connectivity are driving the growth of this segment.
All manufacturers have improved their position considerably in August. Tata Motors has improved its performance from a drop of 86% in Q1 2020 to a 3% growth in August 2020 (Tata Motors numbers are not available for July 2020). This has been driven by improved sales of Tata Ace Gold and Intra products. Ashok Leyland has also significantly improved its performance in August. Dost has performed well and they had a nominal drop of 3%. Maruti Super Carry has also performed very well last month. It had the highest growth year on year in the category with a gain of 47%. Mahindra has also had a very good month in August 2020. With a growth of 9% over last year, Mahindra crossed 15,000 units sold for the first time in 2020. It also makes them a strong number 1 in this segment.
In summary, we are quite bullish on the prospects of the Small Commercial Vehicle segment. This segment will continue to sustainably grow in the coming months and lead the recovery in the CV segment.
This article was also published on MotorIndia magazine at https://www.motorindiaonline.in/trucks/scvs-continue-to-drive-cv-industry-recovery/
This article is brought to you by Leaptrucks. For listings, please check https://www.leaptrucks.in/listings.
Tags: #SCVs, #SmallCommercialVehicles, #AshokLeyland, #Mahindra, #MarutiSuzuki, #TataMotors
Media in both India and across the world have been alarmed by a 24% drop in GDP in the June quarter. This is the largest drop across developed and developing economies as per the data published. While this information sounds alarming as a stand alone piece of news, this will not come as a surprise to most who had logically thought through the impact Covid 19 has had on the country since April in general and the June quarter in particular.
Contrary to the negative outlook from the media, I feel quite optimistic after seeing these numbers. Here’s why:
The world’s longest and most paralysing lockdown: Out of the 91 days in the June quarter, we lost over 33 days to the lockdown. The overall impact was 36% of days lost to lockdown. The lockdown was both total (only essential services were allowed) and debilitating (it crippled the economy during the lockdown and for many weeks after). Any economy moving at a speed of 100kmph when brought to a standstill would take a while to re-start. With this in mind, I was anticipating a drop well over 36% in the June quarter.
Goods and Service Tax collection: GST collection in the June quarter dropped over 41%. This drop was despite the fact that some of the payments that were due to be made in March were paid in June instead. This also led me to believe that the drop could be in the region of 41% or more.
Overall market sentiment: Most businesses in the country with the exception of those selling and trading in essential goods and financial services companies have had a significant impact on their business. Migrant workers had moved back to their hometowns and most of them did not return in the June quarter. All businesses were also grappling with figuring out how to work from home at the time of lockdown. Overall consumer spending came down significantly. This led many of us to expect the worst when it came to an impact on the GDP.
In contrast to the data points and observations above, a 24% drop in GDP almost looks miraculous! Maybe our Gods decided to be kind and bless us ahead of the festive season with a lower than expected drop in GDP. More importantly, this data is also coming out in September, when we are at the fag end of the subsequent quarter. Completing a post-mortem of these numbers seems like an academic exercise.
On the positive side, with Unlock 4.0, the central government is clearly sending a signal to all states that we will have to learn to live with Covid 19 for the near future. They have advocated and are enforcing ease of travel across states for goods and people, bringing transparency in lockdown restrictions and most importantly opening up most businesses to operate safely including malls, restaurants and pubs.
I anticipate that the GDP in the September quarter will show a significant improvement over the June quarter numbers. For starters, we had no national lockdowns (even though we have had some local lockdowns). Secondly, the GST drop for July and August was only 13% as against a 41% drop in the June quarter! Thirdly, unlock 4.0 will give most businesses an opportunity to open up and contribute to the economy.
That being said, it will take time for us to adjust to learning to live with Covid 19 and get back to where we were as an economy in January this year.