Leaptrucks Blog

A slow November for CV sales post the holiday season. While the SCV, I&LCV & Bus segments showed a slight growth, the M&HCV segment de-grew in November. The industry also saw a significant drop of 19% vs October 2023. This is significant, as we enter the last 4 months of the year where the industry is contending with a very high base from last year.

CV OEM and Segment wise sales November 2023

Detailed CV Segment wise sales November 2023

CV sales showed a healthy growth of 14% in the month of October ’23. All segments grew in October led by the Bus segment. Among manufacturers, Maruti, VECV and Mahindra, all grew at over 20%.

Manufacturer-wise sales

Segment-wise sales

SCV Sales

I&LCV Sales

M&HCV Sales

Bus Sales

For more articles and CV sales details, subscribe to our blog at www.leaptrucks.in/blog.

A summary of H1 sales for 2023 for CVs is shown below:

Manufacturer wise sales

Segment wise sales

Segment / Manufacturer wise sales

Commercial Vehicle (CV) sales in August 2023 rebounded in the I&LCV, Bus and M&HCV segments. SCV segment ended flat vs. the same month last year. Among manufacturers, VECV had a strong month with a growth of 30% for the month. The overall CV segment also showed a growth vs. July 2023 as we enter the Festival season.

Manufacturer wise sales

Segment wise sales

SCV Sales

I&LCV Sales

M&HCV Sales

Bus Sales

Is the Indian Middle Class fueling the Indian Growth Story? You must have wondered if this really was the case. I did the same and recently stumbled upon some good Research by SBI which dived deep into the Income Tax filing data from the past 10 years. This sheds light on India’s burgeoning middle class story.

Growth in Numbers

The study highlighted that the number of filers of Income Tax (IT) Returns grew by a strong 300% in the last 10 years. This was projected to reach 8.5 crore (85 million) returns in Assessment Year (AY) 2024 (Returns for Financial Year 2022-23). This points to the substantial growth in the Indian middle class over the last 10 years.

Increase in Wealth

While the numbers have increased, I also wondered if there have been any substantial change in their earnings. The report clearly indicated that the number of returns with 0 tax liability had also dropped substantially from 84% in AY12 to 64% in AY23 (This is despite the government increasing the minimum slab for income tax from Rs. 1.8L to 3L over the same period). This indicated that more filers had transitioned to a taxable bracket. This was also supported by the fact that over 13% of the population in the lowest bracket had migrated to a higher brackets over the past 10 years. This speaks to a substantial growth in income for these IT filers.

Impact of Migration

Almost 50% of returns filed came from 5 states namely: Maharashtra, UP, Gujarat, Rajasthan & West Bengal*. Migration also played a key role with Kerala & Delhi topping the list of states with positive migration. At the same time, UP & Bihar topped the list with negative migration.

The study also attributed this success in growth of IT filers to formalisation of the economy. It specifically cites the move to bring the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) under the Goods & Service Tax (GST) regime as an inflection point. This enabled more workers to join the formal workforce which in turn has helped grow the middle class.

Substantial increase in annual income

Most importantly, the study has clearly shown that the average income of IT filers has substantially increased. It has grown by over 400% from Rs. 4.4 Lakhs in AY14 to Rs. 13 Lakhs in AY23.

Outlook for FY47

India’s population is estimated to grow from 1.4 Billion to 1.6 Billion by FY47. At the same time, active workforce is also expected to grow substantially from 530 Million to 725 Million. This will take our share of workforce in the population to an all time high of 45% (from the current 37%).

This will also drive the number of IT filers to grow by a mind boggling 688%. We will have over 482 Million IT filers by FY47 (from only 70 million in AY23). At the same time, over 25% of tax filers currently in the lowest bracket are projected to move to higher income brackets.

The per capita income which currently stands at Rs. 2 Lakhs (or $2,500) is expected to grow to Rs. 15 Lakhs (or $12,400) in the next 25 years!

Summary

In summary, a growing and prospering Middle Class has accelerated India’s growth story. The formalization of the economy has accelerated the growth of the Indian Middle Class. The average household income has grown by over 300% in the last 10 years alone even after accounting for inflation. The prospects for India’s growth over the next 25 years remain strong. The growing middle class will continue to fuel India’s growth.

SBI Research study: Click Here

Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/_KaushikNarayan

Commercial vehicle sales in July ’23 remained flat Year on Year (YoY) due to unseasonal rainfall, reduced manufacturer discounting, and demand-supply mismatches. Adverse weather disrupted logistics in many parts of the country, while manufacturers’ conservative discounting and evolving market demands impacted purchases. Despite challenges, the industry displayed resilience and optimism for future growth.

CV Sales by manufacturer

In July ’23, Ashok Leyland demonstrated remarkable growth, surpassing 14,000 units with a robust 12% increase. The M&HCV and Bus segments contributed significantly to this success. At the same time, Tata Motors, Mahindra, and VE Commercial Vehicles reported flat performance compared to the previous year. However, Maruti faced a decline of 9% YoY during the same period.

CV Sales by segment

In July ’23, the Bus segment displayed robust growth, growing at 21%. Demand from the Route Permit and the vibrant Tourist segment boosted sales to complement the demand from Schools & Colleges. The M&HCV segment also grew at a remarkable 15% due to replacement demand and demand from the Infrastructure & Capital Goods sectors. However, the SCV segment and I&LCV segment experienced a modest decline of nearly (5%). CV Sales remain resilient in July 2023.

CV Sales – Small Commercial Vehicles (SCVs)

CV Sales – Intermediate & Light Commercial Vehicles (I&LCVs)

CV Sales – Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCVs)

CV Sales – Buses

Links

1. July may be the second rainiest since 2006
2. Leaptrucks homepage

As per Pareto’s law, 20% of your effort leads to 80% of your results. Actions taken during 10-12 hours in a week lead to 80% of the results. The rest are the equivalent of time fillers on a productivity map. Imagine that you are watching your favorite movie (say Pushpa, Kanthara or RRR) – the law says that the productive time in the day is equivalent to the intermission (and not the movie).

So how do you work on improving your productivity? I struggled with the same and came up with 7 Actions to improve my productivity. Here they are!

Action 1: Remind yourself of the Pareto rule

Remind yourself often about the Pareto law. Focus on the important topics that will move the needle a long way. I myself have put this up on my drawing board to remind myself that it’s important to focus on the more important goals. In one of my earlier jobs, emphasis was made to this by asking us to focus on the “Few that make the many”.

Action 2: List out & Prioritize Important Goals

It is important to make a list of your priorities. To simplify this, I suggest listing down 3 top goals both personally and professionally. This helps you consciously devote time to the important goals. Thanks to my better half, I have nailed down 3 personal and 3 professional goals for 2023 to stay focused.

Action 3: Dumb down your Smartphone

Spend less time on your devices. I have uninstalled social media apps from my phone and logged out of them on the browser with a time lock. This makes logging in challenging and I’m hoping that I can stick to it throughout the year. This will open up a lot of your time. If possible, check your emails twice a day at pre-defined times on your calendar, once in the morning and once in the evening.

Action 4: Have fewer meetings

Have fewer and more effective meetings. Fewer meetings free up your time. Use Google calendar or Outlook calendar to schedule meetings before hand and block off time to work on your goals. This will help you focus on your priorities.

Action 5: Prioritize Family

We focus so much on work that we sometimes forget to prioritize our family. Case in point: My son was recently very upset when I was staring at my phone instead of answering his very important query of “Why Batman’s costume is black and not red?” (If you know someone at Marvel you can send me a Red Batman, I would be very much obliged). I plan to correct that among other things in 2023 and spend more effective time with family

Action 6: Find time to re-charge

The laws of nature dictate that we will speed up, but will also have to slow down to re-charge. Re-charge by taking vacations and exploring new places and cultures. Pick a hobby that will also help you build new networks of friends (I pickup up football again this year). Take a walk after lunch to break the monotony.

Action 7: Stay Active

Research has shown that 20 minutes of moderate exercise everyday helps you stay in a positive frame of mind. It does not exhaust you, it helps you with a sense of accomplishment and keeps your dopamine levels high which lets your creative juices flowing. This year, we moved our office closer to home and so I walk to office or back a few times a week. While most of you may not have that luxury, we can always take the stairs instead of the elevator or walk a few blocks instead of driving down in a car or a cab.

Summary

These are 7 Actions to improve your productivity in 2023. They have helped me improve my productivity this year. None of them are challenging all by themselves. However, as I find out everyday, it’s hard to do them all every day. I have great days sometimes and a few not so great days. However, I can guarantee that if you keep at it for atleast 2 weeks, many of them will become a habit. I hope that this helps you improve your productivity in the upcoming year as it has helped me.

Do share any effective actions that help you follow the 80/20 rule that I may have missed. Add them comments section below.

For more articles on productivity and on the Commercial Vehicle industry, you can connect to our blog at www.leaptrucks.in/blog.

Festive truck sales in October continued to provide cheer to Commercial Vehicle sales. While overall CV sales was nearly 75K units for the top 5 manufacturers, the overall sales de-grew by (5%) vs. a strong September 2022. Consumption of FMCG and other products which grew steadily in single digits prior to Diwali fell by over double digits post Diwali which may have impacted the overall sales in October.

Manufacturer sales

Mahindra and Ashok Leyland had a strong month vs. LY with a growth of over 38%. They were followed by VECV, Tata Motors and Maruti. All manufacturers with the exception of Maruti showed a degrowth vs. September 2022.

The industry continues to have a very strong year Year to date (YTD) in 2023. Sales were up 58% vs the same period last year with all manufacturers clocking strong growth.

Segment-wise sales

The Bus segment continued to outshine others in clocking a 117% growth vs. October LY. It was followed closely by the M&HCV Segment and the SCV segment. The I&LCV Segment saw a drop of over (19%). However, all segments were down vs. September 2023.

SCV Sales

The SCV segment had a mixed month with both Mahindra and Ashok Leyland posting strong growth vs. LY. However, Tata Motors saw a de-growth of (8%) vs. LY and Maruti a de-growth of (22%) in the same period.

I&LCV Sales

The I&LCV segment has seen a de-growth of (19%) vs the same time last year. Tata Motors fell (27%) followed by VECV (10%) and Mahindra (5%). This segment is expected to rebounds strongly in the last 5 month of the year.

M&HCV Sales

M&HCV sales continues to shine this year posting a growth of 81% YTD and 39% for the month of October. However, the volumes fell by over (12%) vs. September 2022.

Bus Sales

Bus sales continue to surprise this year. Sales of Staff, Route Permit and Tourist buses continued to remain strong across the country. A strong rebound in tourism, move to urban mobility and mass transport and IT employees returning to work have all contributed to a strong rebound in this segment.

Summary

Festive truck sales in October continue to remain strong vs. LY. While there has been an unanticipated drop vs. sales in September 2022, this may be due to a combination of some pre-buying in September and changes in sentiment post Diwali.

However, the fundamentals in the industry remain strong. With inflation well under control and the second half of the year expected to remain strong, we expect the industry to finish the year in the upper end of growth estimates of 22 to 34%. The revival in the bus segment and the robust performance in the M&HCV segment both indicate a prolonged cycle of growth for the Commercial Vehicle industry in FY23.

To subscribe to our blog, please leave your email at www.leaptrucks.in/blog.

The CV industry had a strong showing in May 2022. The industry grew 253% vs. the same month last year (do note that May 2021 was impacted by Wave 2 of Covid). The performance is heartening and has helped the industry get off the blocks as quick as Usain Bolt.

Segment wise summary

After a really long Covid induced break, it was the time for the bus segment to shine again. The industry grew to pre-Covid volumes of 5,860 numbers driven by very strong demand from Schools. Feedback from the market indicates that this momentum should sustain and help the industry get back to strong and respectable volumes for the year. All other segments including the SCV, I&LCV & M&HCV segments also performed very well.

Manufacturer wise summary

All manufacturers showcased a strong performance in May. Tata Motors continued to lead the industry crossing 31,000 units followed by Mahindra at 21,000 units. Ashok Leyland sold over 12,000 units followed by VECV at 5,000 units and Maruti at 3,526 units. Year to date volumes also impressed showing a growth of over 135% vs. Last Year.

SCV Sales

The SCV segment had a very strong month in May crossing 44,000 units. Mahindra crossed 20,000 units sold followed by Tata Motors at 14,000 units. Ashok Leyland and Maruti also had a strong month in May.

I&LCV Sales

The I&LCV segment also had a strong month. Tata Motors sold over 4,400 trucks followed by VECV at 2,386 trucks. Mahindra also had an impressive showing last month at 632 trucks.

M&HCV Sales

All manufacturers had a strong month in May. Tata Motors, the market leader grew by 226% followed by Ashok Leyland at 386% and VECV at 348%. A broad recovery in the CV segment is expected to benefit the M&HCV segment over the coming months.

Bus sales

Tata Motors and VECV had a very strong performance in buses. The industry appears to have rebounded strongly lead by school buses. Supply constraints due to challenges in body building capacity have posed challenges to manufacturers which should ease in the coming months.

Summary

The CV industry is off to a great start despite challenges of elevated fuel prices and rising inflation. As long as the fundamentals of the economy hold strong, we expect the industry to have a strong year in FY23.